In the first quarter of 2026, GDP increased by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, US GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1% and China GDP growth came in at 4.3%.

Manufacturing activity indicators point to stable demand in Europe and stronger demand in Asia and the U.S. during the summer months: EU, USA and China recorded numbers above the critical 50.0 threshold in June, meaning that manufacturing across all three major economic blocks is in expansion territory, even if moving at different speeds.

The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) on July  shows 70% increase with a three months ago average. Drewry's composite World Container Index is roughly 75% higher than it was during the same period last year and more than twice as much as three months ago.

Freight rates decreased slightly only during the week of July 12-17 (near -2%). However, the values ​​are still significantly higher than the corresponding values ​​of the previous year and the average values ​​of the previous quarter. Largest increase in rates is observed in the Far East - North Europe flow.

Bunker prices remain significantly above pre-Iran war levels (now more than 40% higher than in February). Recently, oil prices have been declining, but volatility and uncertainty around Hormuz reopening remains. The Emergency Bunker Adjustment Factor surcharges (eBAFs) may be cancelled and replaced by standard surcharges (BAFs) for carriers.

As of early July, North Asia’s ports are the most congested, accounting for 38% of global congestion, followed by gateways in North Europe (13%), and in South-east Asia on 9%.

Global air cargo demand has seen robust momentum, with recent data showing a 6.0% year-on-year increase, while global capacity increased by 1.9% year-on-year, substantially below the pace of demand growth, according to IATA.

Global air cargo spot rates in July still 26% higher year-on-year, according to Freightos data.

Following a strong peak-season surge, global forecasts show that short-term spot rates will hold relatively steady high, as carriers actively manage capacity and geopolitical tensions continue to support the market. Ocean freight rates have likely peaked and will remain at current levels, fluctuating by 2–3% during the third quarter, unless new factors come into play. Air freight rates will rise by 2.6% due to increased demand according to the IATA forecast.