In Q3 2026, the European road freight market is characterized by stable but moderate demand, volatile fuel prices, labor shortages, growing toll costs and strong competition. Market volatility is supporting higher freight rates as carriers seek to restore profitability.

In the first quarter of 2026 the EU’s GDP increased by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter. In the European Commission's latest forecast, the GDP growth rate for 2026 has been revised downward: EU GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.5% in 2025.

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI slipped slightly to a 51.4 in June, down from 51.6 in May. The strongest manufacturing readings came from the Netherlands, Italy, Czech, Hungary, weaker indicators of manufacturing activity in Germany and Poland.

Euro area annual inflation was 2.8% in June 2026, easing from 3.3% in May. This slight decline is the first since March 2026, when inflation began to rise from its January level of 2%. According to last EU Commission Forecast, inflation is expected to rise to 3.1%.

In the 1Q 2026, compared to previous quarter, exports of goods, transported by road from EU, increased to: Azerbaijan (+7.8%), Turkey (+5%),  Kazakhstan (+2.4%). There was a decrease in weight of goods exported by road from the EU to Armenia (-16.7%), Uzbekistan (-2.8%), Ukraine (-2.2%). Imports to EU increased from Turkey (+2.9%), Kazakhstan (+1%). Imports decreased from: Uzbekistan (-24%) and Ukraine (-7.4%) compared to the previous quarter.

Compared to early April, prices for Euro 95 are down by more than 6%, and prices for diesel are down by more than 17%.

According to the latest forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), fuel prices are expected to ease in Q3 2026 compared to Q2, though volatility will persist due to geopolitical risks. In Q1 2026, EU business registrations rose slightly (+0.4% QoQ; +15% YoY), while bankruptcies remained 16.5% above last year's level despite a quarterly decline. New EU truck registrations increased by 10.7%, although several markets, including France, Belgium, Bulgaria and Hungary, recorded declines, indicating tighter capacity. As a result of recovering transport demand, reduced capacity, and toll system changes, average freight rates are expected to increase by 3–6% in Q3 2026 compared to Q2.