Despite increased manufacturing activity, the market continues to face pressure from geopolitical uncertainty, high fuel prices, and port congestion. These factors affect the cost and transit times of international shipments.
According to the IMF, global GDP is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2026. The EU and China continue to see moderate growth, while growth in the US economy is slowing. At the same time, inflationary pressures are increasing.
In September, the global manufacturing PMI reached 53.0, its highest level since February 2022. The new export orders index also rose to 51.4. These figures indicate an expansion in manufacturing activity. However, rising costs and ongoing logistics disruptions continue to pose risks for businesses.
Ocean Freight
Ocean freight rates remain high. In October, the SCFI was around 15% higher than three months earlier and more than double its level in the same period last year. Container shipping schedule reliability fell to 27%, while the average vessel delay reached 6 days.
The situation continues to be affected by congestion at Asian ports and typhoons, while low water levels on the Rhine are affecting inland waterway connections. A more than 70% year-on-year increase in VLSFO marine fuel prices is also driving up carriers’ costs.
Air Freight
Global air cargo demand grew by 4.4% year-on-year, while international demand increased by 5.3%. At the same time, available cargo capacity fell by 0.1%, and the cargo load factor reached 46%. Jet fuel prices rose by around 112% year-on-year, reaching $190.18 per barrel. Global air freight rates remain 33% higher than a year ago.
Key Market Updates
- Congestion at Asian Ports: Disruptions to shipping schedules may persist into summer 2027.
- Suez Canal: In Q3 2026, the number of large container ships passing through the canal increased to 166, compared to 16 in the same period last year. However, security risks remain.
- Freight rates and Fuel Surcharges: Hapag-Lloyd updated its rates on Far East–Europe routes, while Maersk introduced a temporary fuel and energy surcharge for domestic shipments in Scandinavia and the Baltic countries.
- Industrial Action: Port worker protests in Italy and France in late October, along with planned strikes in Italy in November, may affect shipping schedules.
- Air Cargo Safety & Security: IATA is calling for more accurate dangerous goods declarations and improved security across air cargo supply chains.
High freight rates, delays, and rising fuel costs continue to pose risks to international logistics. Careful route planning, monitoring additional charges, and adjusting schedules in advance can help reduce the impact of these factors on supply chains.
