In Q2 2026, the European Union’s GDP grew by 0.7%, while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI reached 52.9 points in September, its highest level since May 2022. These figures suggest a recovery in business activity and improving conditions in the manufacturing sector.
In Q3 2026, business activity indicators pointed to continued recovery in the Eurozone, with business activity expanding at its fastest pace in nearly three and a half years. However, annual inflation rose to approximately 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August.
At the same time, the market continues to face several challenges, including rising inflation and fuel prices, an increase in transport sector bankruptcies, and regulatory changes. These factors are putting upward pressure on carriers’ operating costs and affecting freight rates.
In Q4 2026, FTL rates are expected to increase by a further 5–8%. The main drivers are seasonal demand growth, high fuel prices, winter weather conditions, and new administrative requirements. Actual rate movements may vary by route, market and contract terms.
Economic Situation
- EU GDP grew by 0.7% in Q2 2026.
- The Eurozone manufacturing PMI reached 52.9 points in September.
- Inflation in the Eurozone continued to accelerate.
Fuel Prices
- Diesel prices have increased by more than 17% since the beginning of June.
- The average diesel price reached €2.10 per liter as of 5 October.
Transport Sector
- Transport sector bankruptcies increased by 11.4% quarter-on-quarter.
- New transport company registrations declined by 1%.
New Truck Registrations
- Truck registrations in the EU increased by 9.8% in the first half of 2026
Regulatory Changes
- Spain is introducing the mandatory digital transport document DeCA.
- Romania is implementing the TollRo road charging system.
FTL Rate Outlook
- FTL rates increased by approximately 2% in Q3 2026.
- FTL rates are forecast to rise by 5–8% in Q4 2026. Actual rate movements may vary by route, market and contract terms.
