U.S. importers could see immense financial relief if the court grants a refund on list 3 tariffs — a tranche that affected more than 5,700 harmonized tariff schedule codes. U.S. businesses, manufacturers and consumers paid more than $57 billion in tariffs from the trade war's beginnings in February 2018 through April 2020, according to the most recent data from Tariffs Hurt the Heartland.
Attorneys acknowledged the HMTX and subsequent lawsuits may be a long shot. Trade analysts put the odds of success around 10%, according to Jennifer Diaz, board-certified international attorney with the firm Diaz Trade Law.
"I consider it a roll of the dice," she said. "But I'll take the 10% chance. Why not? Let's gamble."
Despite low odds, interest in filing a suit has been high among importers across industries, due to the wide swath of goods covered under the list 3 tariffs, Diaz said. "There's a whole lot of products at stake here," she said.