The first half of 2025 has posed major challenges to global logistics. With escalating trade tensions between the US and the EU, rising fuel prices due to Middle East conflicts, and mounting economic uncertainty, companies are being forced to adapt their supply chains in real time.

Transatlantic tariffs: A new layer of uncertainty

Since April, mutual tariffs between the United States and the European Union have come into force, triggering what ING analysts call "Europe's worst economic nightmare." The impact could lower eurozone GDP by 0.3 percentage points over two years, with the most exposed industries including pharmaceuticals, automotive and – critically – logistics.

Germany, Ireland, and Italy are expected to feel the brunt due to their export structures. But ripple effects are visible across Central and Eastern Europe as well. Exporters are reporting fewer orders, delayed shipments and contract instability, as transatlantic tensions continue to affect business sentiment across the continent.

Fuel spikes shake logistics fundamentals

In June, fears of broader conflict after Israeli strikes on Iranian military targets sent diesel and crude oil prices soaring by 8% and 7%, respectively, in a single day. As diesel remains the backbone of freight transport globally, the spike is putting further pressure on transport costs in road, sea, and rail sectors alike.

“Each geopolitical disturbance creates a chain reaction across the logistics sector. These disruptions often lead to increased transport costs, shifts in routing strategies, contract revisions, and mounting pressure on profit margins”, – said Andrzej Iwanow-Kolakowski, Director of Europe Region at AsstrA-Associated Traffic Ag.

Driver shortage intensifies the pressure

Alongside cost and trade shocks, the logistics sector is facing another persistent challenge: a structural shortage of qualified drivers. This issue is felt across Europe and becomes even more pressing during the summer holiday season. Lack of drivers affects service availability, delivery punctuality and overall customer satisfaction. As a response, more companies are turning to automation, warehouse robotics, and employer branding initiatives to attract and retain talent.

A new supply chain playbook

The events of H1 2025 highlight the need for adaptability. Nearshoring, alternative trade routes, digital logistics platforms, and local sourcing strategies are gaining momentum. Flexibility, resilience and intra-European cooperation will be decisive in navigating the second half of the year.